The real estate market begins to be reactivated, Although experts prefer to speak of"stabilization" and not of "recovery". In 2015 they were sold in Spain 354.132 housing in Spain, a 11,1% more than in the previous year. It is the second consecutive year in which this indicator returns to grow, Although in absolute terms, It is still half of the houses that were sold until the crisis hit. Transmissions have grown in all the autonomous communities, with the exception of Navarra, where fell a 1,7%, and in some the annual increase has grown at rates close to the 20%, as in Aragon and Basque country.
Some data which are overshadowed by the different doubts that gripping the housing market. The first uncertainty factor is the paralysis in new home sales. The balance of 2015 shows that of the 354.132 sold homes, 276.267 (a 78% of the total) they are second hand and only 77.865 they are new. A break which is justified for two reasons. The first is the shortage of supply, as a result of reduced demand and the complex financial situation of many companies linked to the construction sector, that has led to that undertaken first-hand houses has seized, passing of 80.230 in 2009 to 29.883 in 2014. This last year was the first in which this indicator grew up a shy 0,2% After more than five fall. The latest promotion data, for the first quarter of 2015, They point to a certain consolidation. Between January and March this year began 9.592 houses, which means a 24,4% more.
The close relationship between price and sales
The increase in sales is closely linked to the increase in the prices of the houses. So are you can check whether statistics of transmissions and prices that produced INE intersect, from which a conclusion is drawn: to increased demand, the cost to acquire a House is high.
Balearic Islands, Madrid and Catalonia are the three autonomous communities where housing demand grew stronger last year and that had a direct effect on prices. In the three above-mentioned regions climbed a 8,4%, a 6,9% and a 6,1% in the third quarter. In the accumulated in the first three quarters of 2015 they are also listed as the three with higher prices. In this case, Madrid snatches the first position to the Balearic Islands, with an increase of the 7,2%, followed by the archipelago (7%) and Catalonia (5,2%).
The second fact that restrains the optimism is strong cuts suffered by the demand, in a long-term context of recession, with levels of unemployment not fallen from the 20% and a closing of the tap of the credit for the purchase of housing, that starts now timidly opens.
Sales came out of the vicious circle of falling in 2014 and have confirmed the improvement in 2015, Although the number of sold houses is still above the number of mortgages constituted. And it is here where experts put the accent in establishing if the market despuntará or will remain in dead.Juan Fernández Aceytuno, general director of Sociedad de Tasación, He stressed that only you can speak of recovery when the number of mortgages grows over transactions. "The real estate market is associated with mortgages. And in 2014 sold 114.000 more front formed mortgages houses. Last year, in the absence of the data (the INE will give it to the next 26 February), the gap has been of 80.000. All are signs that the demand being activated, but it's not enough", points.
This improvement would have contributed to the low remuneration of deposits and the allocate of equities, (the FTSE has lost a 17% quote since the beginning 2016), that would have turned, According to Fernández Aceytuno, housing in a value refuge. ""Investors and savers would have opted to buy houses and try to make profitable them through the rent"as an alternative to short-term".
On the same line, responsible for studies of Fotocasa.es, Beatriz Toribio, says that "it is early to talk of recovery" in the sector and is confident that in 2016 consolidate your "standardization". "For this reason it is imperative keep the opening of the credit and the improvement of employment", said. Both variables, According to the estimates of the Government and large international organizations, they will come out of their slumber, Although experts have already begun to revise downwards their expectations before the global slowdown.
Other experts put the focus on political instability. Manuel Gandarias, Director of the Office of studies of Pisos.com, It is considered that Spain needs to eliminate the uncertainty that creates the current political situation in markets and own demand. "In some areas does not affect, but it is clear that within the housing market if it does. Potential buyers, in situations of this type, lengthen the waiting and expand their purchase decision".
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