Real estate is preparing to live this year the first of the comeback after the bursting of the bubble has homes depreciated a 35% real from 2008 and it has destroyed more than half of its productive fabric. Cranes have returned, Although, by now, with restraint. Demographic projections thus recommend it, Since only up to 2029 It is estimated that Spain could lose a million inhabitants.
Before the estimates apparently too optimistic of some agents of the real estate on the evolution of the market will be like this year, experts and other operators, as the national employer of promoters APCE, They stressed in asking for prudence and moderation when it comes to take on new projects.
The truth is that you reasons for optimism there is. The housing price adjustments seem to have touched the ground in much of the territory, Sales continue to maintain good tone with which closed the last financial year and the return of funding has resulted in a greater volume of solvent demand. If the improvement of the labour market stays in the short and medium term, the promoters do not doubt that 2016 It will be the year in which again the building with figures of a market at take-off, having lived the worst crisis in its recent history.
But, as always, are there any risks or threats that cannot be ignored. The most shortsighted would be those that have to do with the operation of the economy: employment, credit and interest rates are the three essential variables. These are people who added the political climate, even though they are the least. “Still today we have not noticed that the result that threw the polls the past 20 d is holding back or purchase of housing by private individuals, or decision making of investment by large firms”, explains Juan Antonio Gómez-Pintado, President of the national employer of developers APCE.
"Despite the fact that this time the negotiations to form a Government gone longer than usual, There is no certainty that will not have an agreement and the inertia of the Spanish economy is important. It would only be worrying that they would have to repeat the elections and the result was very similar to the December", holds the promoter sector representative. However, one of the variables that was decisive in what happened during the last housing boom, and that all the Governments and economic agents should keep in mind, is the demographics.
At the end of this year, the National Institute of statistics (INE) will update the long term population projection It takes place every two years. The last, at the end of 2014, It was devastating conclusions that may not ignore the real estate market if you do not want to attend another phase of growth exploded with undesirable effects on prices, offer, indebtedness, activity and employment. Like this, in 2015 the first forecast of the INE was fulfilled. It was the first year during which the number of deaths exceeded the births, getting that way the loss of population statistics provided for the next 15 years old, that will be of 1,02 million inhabitants (a 2,2%) and that will rise to 5,6 million less in a horizon of 50 years old. In this way, in 2024 they counted 45,8 millions of residents and just 40,9 million in 2064.
The reduction of the population will occur by this progressive increase of deaths over births, tendency to, If no one remedy it, will be marked especially starting from 2040 and that you can mitigate even the migratory flow. Not even believing that in the same period will it bea net positive migration balance (difference between migrants arriving in Spain with the Spanish who go abroad) of 2,5 millions of people. The truth is that the generation of thebaby boom, the largest of the recent history of Spain, largely explains how it was generated since the end of the nineties the bullish home sales and prices longer period of the last century.
A few cohorts of age need population very numerous housing were joined by economic recovery, as well as the mortgage revolution it prompted the entry of Spain into the euro, withloans with very long repayment terms and minimum interest rates. And this also joined immigration explosion, as reminds Josep Oliver, Professor of applied economics at the University Autonoma of Barcelona. If we stick to these four factors, the truth is that its effects have been already exhausted, so it is not prudent to think that at the moment, because the worst of the crisis is exceeding, the market is ready to return to build hundreds of thousands of homes each year.
Thus also believes it Gomez-Pintado who already has launched a study into pace to calculate as exhaustively as possible what will be the demand for housing by autonomous communities up to 2017. "The objective of the study is to establish forks need homes and avoid to be build there where no need". In fact, ensures that, the first results are getting, While There are places where it is a serious problem the ground shortage, others will not be suitable to promote still in time. "And this demand in the future and the viability of a promotion is something that has also started to assess the banking before granting funding to build a new development of flats", warns the President of employers.
Although it will take to finish the study, Gomez-Pintado advances that their projections will be positioned in the intermediate band, among the most pessimistic, that it hardly calculated a need little more than 60.000 new homes a year, and those who claim that they can already build up to 250.000.
Even the demand for houses by foreigners pull You can justify, in the opinion of Professor Oliver, It can be to build 250.000 dwellings per year. "It is true that the current optimism is linked to the good situation facing interest rates and rent or buy a flat in the hope that prices rise can be an investment that is profitable", but structurally the conditions have changed".
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